It’s the question we hear most: will a heat pump actually keep my house warm in January? For today’s cold-climate models, the answer is yes.
How a heat pump heats
A heat pump doesn’t burn anything. It moves heat. Even at −20°C, outdoor air holds heat energy, and the heat pump’s refrigerant absorbs it, compresses it to raise its temperature, and releases it inside. Because it moves heat rather than making it, a heat pump can deliver two to four units of heat for every unit of electricity it uses. In summer the same system runs in reverse and works as your air conditioner.
What “cold-climate” means
Older heat pumps lost much of their capacity below freezing, which is where their reputation came from. Cold-climate models use variable-speed compressors and better refrigerants, and keep heating efficiently down to about −30°C. Ontario’s rebate requires a model on Natural Resources Canada’s qualified products list, and those are the units we install.
Heat pump or furnace?
| Cold-climate heat pump | High-efficiency gas furnace | |
|---|---|---|
| Heats | Yes, down to about −30°C | Yes |
| Cools | Yes, replaces your A/C | No |
| Efficiency | 200–400% | Up to 98% |
| Ontario rebate | Up to $7,500 (up to $12,000 ground source) | None on its own |
| Federal rebate | $2,000 to $10,000 from Nov 1, 2026 | None |
When a hybrid makes sense
If you heat with natural gas, a hybrid system pairs a heat pump with a high-efficiency furnace. The heat pump handles most of the year, and the system switches to the furnace automatically on the coldest days or when gas is cheaper to run. For homes heated with oil, propane or electric baseboards, a heat pump on its own usually saves the most, typically 40 to 60% on heating.
Getting the size right
An oversized heat pump short-cycles and an undersized one leans on backup heat. Sizing depends on your home’s heat loss, which is why we often recommend insulation and air sealing first: a tighter home needs a smaller, cheaper heat pump, and the insulation has its own rebate.